ACL Season: WHAT THE NUMBERS TELL US
Well it was quite the 4th of July weekend. Fireworks, good food, family time and Joey Chestnut broke his own record by shoving 76 wieners in his mouth…bun and all. It was riveting stuff. Luckily for all of us, we also had a weekend filled with cornhole action! The 2021 Final Chase event is now complete (National Number 4 if you get confused like I do by the names)! Having 4 national events completed, some trends start to pop out….let’s take a look
Let’s just say it…Daymon Dennis is just a singles machine. Was it his absolute best National to date? Nope. But he is literally the ONLY individual to finish in the top 5 at each of the first 4 national events. It is absolutely astounding when you think about it. Close on his heels is another player, who has finished top 5 in three out of 4 National events….Cody Henderson. Prior to this weekend I really though Cody’s case for MVP was pretty strong, although he lacked that top finish. He had finished top 5 in the first three National Events in Singles and doubles (the only player to do so), and even had another solid finish with a Top 3 finish this weekend in doubles! Yet…singles…well, that didn’t go according to his plans. He finished 45th place. I can hear you yelling at the screen now, “But Sean, they throw out their lowest finish!” Oh and I bet the ACL will give out participation medals this year too…..you just don’t forget finishes like that….especially late in the season. It’s like college Football. A top program can lose a game early and still make the playoff..but lose late??? Screwed
This National event also separated, in my opinion, the true contenders in singles. Outside of DD and Cody, there have been 7 individuals to finish in the top 5 in two National events: Bret Guy, Matt Guy, Eddie Grinderslev, Devon Harbaugh, Isidro Herrera, Jimmy McGuffin, and Trey Burchfield. Why does this matter? Well perhaps you have heard that you can now bet on Cornhole. These 9 individuals, listed above, have filled out a total of 21 out of 32 possible “Top 5 finishes”. Quick math would tell us that is a hefty 65% of the slots filled by 9 players….last time I checked, there were over 250 pros. Eleven other players each finished top 5 through the first four National events. The weirdest part, two of them were Champions: Ryan Windsor and Steven Bernacet.
What I am getting at is it’s hard to predict who will win these events, but it is becoming clearer who has the best chances. Obviously 4 events isn’t a massive sample size, but we can only work with what we are given. Those eleven other players that finished top 5…have an 8% better chance at finishing top 5 at the next National compared to those who have yet to crack it. Statistics are only numbers and I tend to use what my eyes are telling me more than just the numbers. For example, I’d give players like Eric Anderson, Mike Harvey or Tony Smith a slightly higher chance to finish top 5 because of their recent success…players like Tyler Poythress, Kyle Malone or Kamryn Belvin…I still give them a slight edge, but less so than those that RECENTLY finished higher.
So we have established that singles is tough to predict, but we see that at a very minimum, 9 players have put themselves at the front of the pack. Doubles…well…there are really only Six teams, based on the first 4 National events, that are even worth betting on. Guy/Graham, Hissner/Henderson and Bernacet/Gustafson have each finished top 5 in the first four national events. What do I keep harping on top 5?? Finishing top 5 means you made it to your bracket final….and logic would tell us that you can only win a National if you first win your bracket. So at the very minimum, these teams gave themselves the best chances of doing just that. Outside of those first four juggernauts, we have three other teams who have had crazy successful seasons: Camba/Baldwin, Guy/Davis and Grinderslev/Batson. Each of these three teams finished in the top 5 in three of four National events.
What does this tell us??? Well, this tells us that 21/32 spots or 65% of the top 5 finishes this season have been taken up by SIX teams. Absolutely ridiculous! It makes the run of teams like Zaft/Hadley that much more impressive/improbable. Unlike Singles, all four National titles are held by one of those 6 teams. So it’s very safe to say, when placing a bet on doubles….if you’re not including one of these six teams…you’re more than likely going to lose.
The ACL motto “Anyone can play, anyone can win”, holds true to some extent. However the numbers don’t lie and it will be tough sledding for most players heading into the World Championships.
Coming up will be a deep dive into the MVP race. Does Daymon Dennis run away with it? Or could there be another name or two who could sneak in and take away that hardware??
Thanks for reading!
As always, I hope you throw it straight and it’s nothing but four baggers from here on out!
