Shuck it…Cornhole Mania Best Bets
The 2022 American Cornhole League season is well underway as we approach the 2nd National event of the year dubbed “Cornhole Mania”. Cornhole fans have been spoiled this year with the ACL increasing live coverage (outside of the ESPN broadcasts) to 4 featured courts, each covering action from a predetermined bracket. This increase in exposure is outstanding for players and the league alike.
As the ACL continues to gain popularity there will be an inevitable correlating increase of interest in the game from outside sports gamblers. The ACL partnered with Draftkings, a popular online gambling site, which allows you to place wagers on a wide variety of sports, now including Cornhole. Currently only 9 states have approved betting on Cornhole related matches: IL, PA, AZ, OR, NH, CO, WY, MI and CT. As sport gambling becomes legalized in more states across the country, cornhole is setting itself up nicely to become a popular game/sport to wager on.
If you find yourself reading this and are intimidated by sports gambling in general, never fear. Dropping this week is a new installment from Big Asp Cornhole called, “Shuck it or Chuck it”, where the guys dive into the betting lines and let you know where to potentially find the most bang for your buck. Below is a “beginner’s guide” to understanding the lines and a breakdown of the lines we like with a little rationale behind each! It is important to note that these were the lines as of Tuesday (3/15/22). Let’s get it!
Singles:
Josh Holland (+1200): $10 bet wins $120; $100 bet wins $1200
Bracket A
This ACL “Rookie” finished 3rd in his bracket in National Number 1. He currently finds himself ranked 2nd in PPR with a ridiculous 10.50, and in 4 Bagger Percentage (4BP) of 52.25%; Oh and he is 2nd in DPR (differential per round) with a studly .83. Stats alone tell us he is due
Josh has a solid Draw on the Right side of the A bracket, opposite of the reigning Singles champion, Matt Guy. I like his chances on making a run to the bracket finals, which is what we hope for in the bracket type tournaments. You can’t win the entire event without winning your bracket. Players like Justin Stranger, Duncan Clemmer, Noah Almanza, Nick Williams and Alan Rawls will do their best to prevent a Holland run….but I think it’s only a matter of time before we see Josh make an ESPN Broadcast
Mark Richards (+3500): $10 bet wins $350; $100 bet wins $3500
Bracket C
Richards has gone from watching cornhole videos on YouTube to winning brackets at National Events. Richards has already won 2 open singles titles (1 of 2 people who can say that this year) and at National number 1 he won his bracket. He ultimately T-3rd at National number 1, but is setting himself up for ROY as well as MVP consideration.
He sits at 4th in PPR at 10.40 and is 1st in DPR at a ridiculous .93
It won’t be the easiest of roads to the ESPN broadcast courts as Tanner Halbert, Eddie Grinderslev, Matthew Creekkiller and Adam Hissner are all capable of making deep runs
Tanner Halbert (+5000): $10 bet wins $500; $100 bet wins $5000
Bracket C
Ok Ok, I hear you….”but you just had Mark Richards in bracket C blah blah….”
Tanner is a former World Champion and has been looking as steady as ever throwing Ultra Bags. He is currently sitting at 10th in PPR at 10.11 with a healthy DPR of .66.
He finds himself on the opposite side of Mark Richards and I feel confident that one of these two will at the very least make it to the bracket finals. At +5000 I just love the value and Tanner has won big events before
Bret Guy ACL pro
Bret Guy (+5500)
Bracket B
This is more of a “gut feeling” pick where I like the value
This year is eerily similar to last season. Last season Bret had himself a lackluster start in the first National Event of the year….then National #2 came. Last season at this same event Bret won his bracket and T-3rd overall...not to mention he won Doubles with partner Erick Davis. It was at this point last year Bret elevated his game to elite level and never looked back. Coming off a Regional win this past weekend, Bret looks to be rounding into form again
Go Big or go home pick??
Steven Bernacet (+9000)
Bracket B
This is a value pick that I just can’t pass up. A former National champion who has a decent draw as he find himself on the Left side of Bracket B (the “weaker” of the top seeds).
Bernacet plays a fearless style game and if his airmail is on point he can beat anyone in the world. He doesn’t have the easiest of paths as he will most likely have to beat, I am guessing, Devon Harbaugh and Cody Henderson just to make it to the semi-finals of the bracket. We have seen it before and at +9000 I just don’t think you’ll find a more comfortable bet.
Doubles:
Derek Holland/Josh Holland (+3000)
Bracket C
The 2nd seed in bracket C, they find themselves with a very winnable sub section. One of three teams to have both players ranked in the top 15 in Doubles PPR (Malone/Johnson, Guy/Graham), the father/son duo is a statistical nightmare.
Tough road: They are one of 4 teams in Bracket C that I feel has a strong chance at winning: Halbert/Zocklein (+700), Davis/Guy (+1000) and Burchfield/Rawls (+ 1500)
At +3000 I like my value compared to the other three teams and feel the Holland duo is just as, if not more, capable of winning this event than the others
Michael Dinges/Michael Lucas Jr (+ 6500)
Michael Lucas Jr (Left), Michael Dinges (Right), ACL pro doubles team
Bracket A
Seemingly always underrated, Lucas Jr and Dinges have quietly been one of the most consistent teams in the ACL over the last 3 seasons. I love their draw coming out of the bottom left quadrant of Bracket A. Fuentez/Cox (+9000) or Hunter/Maupin could cause problems, but I just think this duo has the experience needed to make a deep run.
Jacob Foreman/Matthew Creekkiller (+7000)
Bracket B
Arguably one of the most hyped rookie teams entering National #1. Did they live up to the expectations?? Well, no. But the hype is well deserved.
They have a tough road right out of the gate having to face Peyton Mares (Open champion) and Blaine Rosier. Their reward for winning this match?? A date with the number 2 overall seed, National Runner-up, Hogg/Trzcienski (+3000); not to mention they are in the same sub section as the talented duo of Wooten/Smith. The point of it is, their value at +7000 is just too good to pass up
Mark Richards/Philip Lopez Jr (+7500)
Bracket A
This entire bracket is loaded with talent, but again the key word is VALUE. I just don’t see this line staying at +7500. If they can find a way to get passed Windsor/Herrera (+425), most likely they will see either Renner/Baldwin (+700) or Hissner/Henderson (+2000) in the semifinals. The key here is Lopez Jr. If he plays with confidence, these two will be trouble all year long. Take advantage of a great line now….I don’t see us being as lucky in later events
Go Big or Go home pick??
ACL pro Chuckie Love (Left) with Pro partner Timmy Jonas (Right)
Timmy Jonas/Chuckie Love (+9000)
Bracket D
When looking at these deep picks I really wanted a good sense at who I thought had the best odds at winning their quadrant. Sitting at a #4 seed, Jonas/Love are set up nicely. Their biggest test would arguably be in the quarterfinals vs Anderson/Smith (+4000), and the lines suggest that Jonas/Love would be big underdogs in that match-up. Love and Jonas have been playing very well as of late locally. At +9000, the line implies a 1% chance for this duo to win…but as the ACL motto goes, “Anybody can play. Anybody can win”
Head to Head
-When wagering on head to head match-ups, we are trying to predict who will place higher, not necessarily win in a straight up head to head match. Knowing individual bracket draws will help to make these decisions. Let’s take a look at some of my favorites
Renner/Baldwin (-140) vs Guy/Davis (+110)
For those unfamiliar: -140 means to win $100 you need to wager $140; +110 means if you bet $100 you’d win $110
As I noted with Bret Guy, it was at this time last year that Guy/Davis flexed and won the entire event. If you look at the brackets, Guy/Davis theoretically have the tougher route. The lines imply a 93% chance that Renner/Baldwin win, with 83% implied for Guy/Davis.
Give me Guy/Davis here with these lines
Malone/Johnson (-130) vs Burchfield/Rawls (+100)
Malone and Johnson had an amazing run at National #1. Cody Johnson threw out of his mind with a PPR of 10.18, 1 position below his partner Kyle Malone who avg 10.20 PPR. Obviously this team is crazy talented, but I worry that they won’t be able to carry this ceiling through another National Event. Burchfield and Rawls are sitting at even money and I really like their draw
Give me Burchfield/Rawls here
Well there you have it! Make sure to catch the first episode of “Shuck it or Chuck it”(available on all platforms), tomorrow (3/17/22), for a deaper dive into the numbers!!
Let us know who your favorites are in the comment section below!
As always, I hope you throw it straight and it’s nothing but four baggers from here on out! Later!
-Sean
