Beyond the Odds

The DraftKings opening lines for the ACL Final Chase have been released. It has been interesting to track the first three nationals and see how the sportsbook has adjusted singles and doubles odds. In my opinion, from what we have seen so far the adjustments made have reflected name power more than the raw stats/standings. We will use Ryan Windsor vs Duncan Clemmer as an example. Windsor is currently 21st in pro singles and his odds starting from Kickoff Battle to the upcoming Final Chase have been (+550, +650, +1500, +1500). He has been a top 10 favorite at every national. Duncan Clemmer on the other hand is currently tied for 12th in the pro singles but we have only had betting odds on him for the Cornhole Mania (+9000) and now the Final Chase (+4000). If you have read the Beginner’s Guide you will know a $100 bet at +650 would profit $650 and a $100 bet at +9000 would profit $9000. That is a tremendous difference in ROI (Return on Investment). But is there that much separating these two players? Below we will break down odds given into implied probability.

Cornhole Mania Odds

Duncan Clemmer +9000 (1.10% chance to win)

Ryan Windsor +650 (13.33% chance to win)

If this tournament happened an infinite amount of times, would Windsor win this event 12 times before Clemmer would once?  

Final Chase Odds

Duncan Clemmer +4000 (2.40% chance to win)

Ryan Windsor +1500 (6.25% chance to win)

As you can see the odds have changed for each individual, but have they changed enough? That is the job for us bettors to interpret. It is a game of cat and mouse with the bettor and the sportsbook. As a bettor you want to stay one step ahead of the line moves. Sportsbooks adjust their numbers up until the start of the event based on the risk they have associated with a certain team/individual. This is why it is important to make your bet early to maximize profit if you feel a line will move. Getting closing line value is a very important stat to those that take betting seriously. Cornhole betting is still in the very beginning stages. We don’t see as much volatility in the market in comparison to other sports, but CLV (closing line value) is a good indicator to see if you are on the right side of the line move. 

At the last national, I made a case for Singleton/Schermerhorn at +6500. Yes, I was on an island for this pick. It’s not the “sexy” pick like someone at the top of the odds board, but I perceived value in the number. They made a great run and tied for 5th. We now see them open at +3500. My bet was a loser, but I stand corrected in seeing value in the stretched odds of +6500. At  the current number +3500, I feel that's where they should have been in the first place. 

Below is a chart showing the biggest line moves from the Bag Brawl to the upcoming Final Chase. Draftkings is “shucking” those that see their odds tank by giving them shorter odds, and “chucking” those that we see longer odds for. Are they overreacting? Is one team/individual getting too much respect in the odds? Will we see another winner from the bottom of the odds board like Malone/Johnson (+8000) did at the kickoff battle? Now is the chance to buy low and sell high. Good luck!

Tune into the Shuck it or Chuck it podcast that drops this Friday, 7/1/22, to get all the inside info!!